Maximise Attendances with Economically-Designed Fixture

I ‘dropped’ (as they say these days) my latest op ed in the Australian Financial Review (today, Thursday 7 April), called: “Clash of Rivals will Boost Flagging Football Crowds” on p.47 of the hard copy. The link is here, but if you find it gated for you, then e-mail me to request a copy.

It builds on a paper that is forthcoming to be published soon, with Dr Jordi McKenzie (Macquarie University) and Stephan Lenor (University of Heidelberg, Germany).

In a good day all-round media-wise, I was also interviewed on ABC Radio Melbourne (774 AM) with Jon Faine regarding this research. Audio of the interview is available here for one week (go  straight to 57:15).

We believe that using our mathematical optimisation technique, we could increase AFL attendance by 100,000 spectators a year via a simple reform of how the fixture is determined (It could also do a similar thing for the NRL). This change would not even compromise the fixture with respect to any of its existing constraints. Over to you, League officials!!!

Economics Decodes ‘Hottest 100’ Musical Tastes

Rock’n’roll dreams do come true in the annual Triple J ‘Hottest 100’; and there is actually quite a bit of potential for economic analysis from it.

This potential was covered in my opinion piece, which ran in the Australian Financial Review (today, Thursday 21 January), titled: “Rock’n’roll the Winner in Triple-J Hottest 100 Count” on p.35. The results of the 2015 poll will be revealed on Tuesday (Australia Day).

For the record, here is the list of 2015 songs I voted for, which shows just how out-of-touch I am with the alt/indie scene nowadays. Here’s hoping that you enjoy the countdown (if, like me, that’s what you’re into).

Art vs Science – Tired of Pretending
Birds of Tokyo – Anchor
Courtney Barnett – Pedestrian at Best
Courtney Barnett – Nobody Really Cares if You Don’t Go to the Party
Meg Mac – Never Be
The Rubens – Hoops
Rudimental – Never Let You Go
Tame Impala – ‘Cause I’m a Man
The Weeknd – Can’t Feel My Face
Zafareli – Withdrawals

Bondonomics! Sky-High Expectations for new 007 Flick

I finally published some thoughts on the ‘Bond, James Bond 007’ movie franchise business model via an opinion piece, which ran in the Australian Financial Review (today, Monday 9 November), titled: “Bond Formula Ensures Franchise will Die Another Day” on p.35.

With the new movie (number 24) opening in Australian cinemas on Thursday, it is a timely piece for those of you wanting your Bond fix before then.

Brownlow Medal Data Uncovers Biases in Voting Decisions

I had another opinion piece run in the Australian Financial Review (today, Thursday 24 September), titled: “Brownlow Voting Biased Against the Ineligible” on p.51.

The key thrust is that AFL players already suspended earlier in the season (thus ineligible to win the Brownlow Medal – the best and fairest player award) poll significantly less votes than their still-eligible counterparts.

It is a timely piece in advance of this year’s vote count next Monday night.

I hope the ‘footy-heads’ among you enjoy this one!

Ashes Combatants Understand Gains from International Trade in Coaches (AFR Piece)

Another opinion piece of mine appeared in today’s edition of the Australian Financial Review (Thursday 11 June), titled: “Free Trade in Coaches Gives All Teams an Edge” (link gated), on p.51. Alternatively, if you don’t have the hard copy, feel free to e-mail me a request.

It draws analogies between generalities of the virtues of free-trade (internationally), and the specific labour market for foreign coaches of national sports teams.

This is kinda topical in Australian media circles at the moment because of Australian Trevor Bayliss recently being appointed coach of England ahead of the Ashes (starting in 4 weeks time). Happy reading!

RBA Rate Decisions More Powerful in Smaller Doses (AFR Piece)

The Australian Financial Review ran an opinion piece of mine (with my colleague, Jan Libich) that appeared in this morning’s edition (Tuesday 7 April), titled: “RBA Medicine Should be Dispensed in Smaller Doses” on p.43 (some of you will find the link to be gated)…or e-mail me a request if you cannot access it any other way.

It discusses an idea of ours to improve the impact of central bank interest-rate setting in Australia, which is to reduce the increment of change to the cash target rate (the main monetary policy instrument), from 25 to 10 basis points. Such a change would incur a relatively small adjustment cost, while providing a good return on extra ‘signalling power’. Read the piece to get more detail.

Social Science Showing Super Results on Anti-Doping Policy Idea

I had another op ed piece appear in the Australian Financial Review today, Monday 9 February: “Right Incentives may Keep Sports Industry Clean” (gated link). The piece is on p.35.

In it, I continue to build the case for ‘conditional superannuation’ as a possible supplementary anti-doping policy. Even though the war against doping may never be well-and-truly won; this idea remains a nice and intuitive incentive-based mechanism, which may very well produce a significant fall in the incidence of doping in sport.

Aussie Tennis Stars Statistically Fail to Fire at Home

My first newspaper piece for 2015 appeared in the Australian Financial Review (today, Friday 9 January), called: “Home-court advantage fading away in Australia”. It did not appear on-line, so e-mail me a request for a copy if you’re a tennis fan (even if you’re not) who wishes to read it. Alternatively, it’s on p.35 of the hard copy for those with access.

It builds on work I’ve been doing with Dr James Reade (University of Reading). The basic thrust is that home advantage on the ATP Tour was insignificant for Australian (male) tennis players over our 2003-2013 sample period, unlike most other major tennis-playing nations. These blokes had better start pulling their collective finger out!

UPDATE: They did…a bit!

Hawthorn’s Case for All-time AFL Premiership Supremacy

I thought I’d blog a brief post about Hawthorn’s 2014 AFL Grand Final triumph because…well, I can.

In an orgy of brown and gold hubris, I chose to celebrate the occasion by gloating shamelessly in today’s Australian Financial Review (Tuesday 30 September), in the article: “Adjusting the Count Makes the Hawks AFL Winners” (gated, on p.55 of print copy).

The thrust suggests that all things considered for ‘opportunity’ (both seasons in AFL and number of teams in each season), Hawthorn now goes statistically to the top of the AFL all-time premiership tree, despite being equal-fourth on raw numbers.

I also had a short interview on Mornings with Geoff Hutchison on ABC Radio (Perth), discussing other findings arising from this adjustment (with an emphasis on the two WA teams).

E-mail me a request if you are interested in either of these files.

Perhaps the final word on AFL season 2014 should belong to Titus O’Riely: “The good news is that finally, the drought is over for those long suffering Hawks supporters. How they have waited. It’s not every year Hawthorn wins a Premiership, but it really feels like it.”

Rugby’s ‘Bonus Points’ Work – Policymakers Should Take Note (AFR Piece)

I had yet another opinion piece that appeared in this morning’s edition of the Australian Financial Review (Friday 22 August), titled: “Use Bonus Points to Encourage Crowd-Pleasing Play” (link gated), on p.35. Alternatively, if you don’t have the hard copy, e-mail me a request.

It discusses research I have undertaken with Niven Winchester (MIT) on estimating the effect of the try bonus in Rugby to alter behaviour of players and coaches to produce more attacking rugby to score more tries, which after all is what the punters want.

It develops ideas discussed in this blog a few years ago. The paper title itself is the somewhat more esoteric: “Secondary Behavioural Incentives: ‘Field’ Evidence on Professionals”…hopefully coming soon to a good peer-refereed economics journal near you!